NewVICO Pro chat with Causal and Scenario Explorer
Insight into what’s next — and why.
Name any event. VICO writes it as a forecastable event, puts a probability on it, shows what pushes it up or down and maps what follows. Every claim is sourced.
On the VICO platform and the Bloomberg Terminal · Backtested, Brier score < 0.15
How it works
From a topic to a forecast you can explain.
A real VICO session, played step by step as you scroll: one topic, one Causal Explorer, one answer you can trace back to its causes.
01Topic
Name a topic.
Type it the way you would say it. VICO writes it as an event you can forecast, and gives you three ways in: Probability, Causes and Scenarios.
FAA drone delivery rules
I've written the event for this topic; you can edit it.
Topic
FAA Part 108 drone delivery rules
EventThe FAA publishes the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027.
Written by VICO from your topic.
- ProbabilityHow likely is this event?
Not started
- CausesWhat pushes it up or down
Not started
- ScenariosWhat follows if it happens
Not started
Tell me what else you'd like to see
02Causes
Ask what moves it.
Pick Causes. VICO designs a Causal Explorer for the event: the question, the horizon and what it will weigh.
FAA drone delivery rules
I've written the event for this topic; you can edit it.
Topic
FAA Part 108 drone delivery rules
EventThe FAA publishes the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027.
Written by VICO from your topic.
- ProbabilityHow likely is this event?
Not started
- CausesWhat pushes it up or down
Ready
- ScenariosWhat follows if it happens
Not started
I've prepared the causal analysis for this event.
Start with a Causal Explorer· 15 monthsReady
Will the FAA publish the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027?
Evaluates the regulatory, safety, and industry factors driving the timing of the FAA final rule.
Tell me what else you'd like to see
03Causal Explorer
Watch the model come together.
Causal factors, courses of action and outside events, each with its own forecast, wired to the outcome by how hard they push it up or down.
Causal Explorer
Will the FAA publish the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027?
89%
baseline probability
Forecasted event
FAA publishes final rule for Part 108 (BVLOS operations) in Federal Register by end of 2027
Causal factor
OMB/OIRA Regulatory Review Completion
Causal factor
Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) and UTM Spectrum Allocation Clearance
Causal factor
Commercial and Public Safety Sector BVLOS Operational Push
Course of action
Deploy Industry-Government Technical Advisory Panel for OMB/OIRA Clearance
External event
Federal Government Shutdown or Severe FAA Budget Deadlock
Causal factor
FAA Interagency Security Protocol Alignment with TSA
Causal factor
National Airspace System (NAS) Safety Incidents or Midair Conflicts
Causal factor
Executive Branch Mandates for American Airspace Sovereignty
Course of action
Accelerate DOT Mobile Network Aviation Assessment Program (MNAAP) Field Trials
External event
Breakthrough in Commercial Cellular-Based UTM Integration
Course of action
Establish Expedited Interagency FAA-TSA BVLOS Working Group
External event
High-Profile Commercial Drone Cyberattack or Spoofing Incident
Course of action
Mandate Dual-Layer Remote ID and DAA Hardware Redundancy for High-Density BVLOS
04Insight
Get the answer, and the why.
A probability, the main driver, the top catalyst and the biggest risk, each one a node in the graph you can open and test.
FAA drone delivery rules
I've written the event for this topic; you can edit it.
Topic
FAA Part 108 drone delivery rules
EventThe FAA publishes the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027.
Written by VICO from your topic.
- ProbabilityHow likely is this event?
Not started
- CausesWhat pushes it up or down
Ready · 89%
- ScenariosWhat follows if it happens
Not started
I've prepared the causal analysis for this event.
Start with a Causal Explorer· 15 monthsDone
Will the FAA publish the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027?
Evaluates the regulatory, safety, and industry factors driving the timing of the FAA final rule.
VICO's model puts the probability of the FAA publishing the Part 108 final rule by the end of 2027 at 89%.
- Main driver: OMB/OIRA review must clear first, assumed 90% likely on its own
- Top catalyst: TSA security protocol alignment adds +17.9 pts
- Biggest risk: a commercial drone cyberattack or spoofing incident cuts −13.0 pts
Tell me what else you'd like to see
Causal Explorer
Will the FAA publish the Part 108 BVLOS final rule by the end of 2027?
89%
baseline probability
Forecasted event
FAA publishes final rule for Part 108 (BVLOS operations) in Federal Register by end of 2027
Causal factor
OMB/OIRA Regulatory Review Completion
Causal factor
Detect-and-Avoid (DAA) and UTM Spectrum Allocation Clearance
Causal factor
Commercial and Public Safety Sector BVLOS Operational Push
Course of action
Deploy Industry-Government Technical Advisory Panel for OMB/OIRA Clearance
External event
Federal Government Shutdown or Severe FAA Budget Deadlock
Causal factor
FAA Interagency Security Protocol Alignment with TSA
Causal factor
National Airspace System (NAS) Safety Incidents or Midair Conflicts
Causal factor
Executive Branch Mandates for American Airspace Sovereignty
Course of action
Accelerate DOT Mobile Network Aviation Assessment Program (MNAAP) Field Trials
External event
Breakthrough in Commercial Cellular-Based UTM Integration
Course of action
Establish Expedited Interagency FAA-TSA BVLOS Working Group
External event
High-Profile Commercial Drone Cyberattack or Spoofing Incident
Course of action
Mandate Dual-Layer Remote ID and DAA Hardware Redundancy for High-Density BVLOS
Proof
Backtested. Explainable. Early.
VICO forecasts have been backtested against experts and prediction markets. Every forecast comes with its rationale and its sources, so you can check the work.
- Brier score
- < 0.15On backtested forecasts. Lower is better.
- Iran, ten days out
- 78.5%VICO's hourly forecast, up from 55%, ahead of the US and Israeli strikes.
- Backtested against
- BeatsHuman experts and prediction markets.
Case study · Iran
The forecast moved ten days before the news did.
Ten days before US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered a market repricing, VICO’s hourly forecast had already climbed steadily from 55% to 78.5%, reading carrier deployments, military buildups and failed diplomatic talks in real time. Prediction markets sat flat, then spiked on the news.
How we called it — VICO Research WirePlatform & access
Forecasts where you already work.
Beyond the chat, VICO is a full workspace for watching event risk. Use it on the VICO platform, on the Bloomberg Terminal or through the API.
Monitor
Build your own watch center for events, actors and risks across political, geopolitical and economic sectors.
Forecasts
Follow VICO's forecasts or create your own, and track them over time as continuous data.
Alerts
Get an email or text when a risk trends across time or hits a probability you set.
News
The headlines behind your forecasts, in one place.
Index Builder
Build custom forecast indices to track any event risk and check them against market movements.
Exposure Desk
Pick what you hold and the forecasts to test it against, then open any cell for the reasoning.
Ways to access VICO
Company
Founded by former senior finance, intelligence and technology executives.
Today’s world is full of immense risk, uncertainty and volatility. Our team has helped Presidents, Generals, CEOs and the biggest investors in the world make the most consequential decisions. We saw a better way: the computational power of AI and the rational constraints of mathematics. So we brought together a world-class team of AI, data science and intelligence experts to build it.
Team
Advisors
John Tang, Ph.D.
Senior Science Advisor
Robert Cardillo
former Director of NGA and Deputy DNI
Nadia Schadlow, Ph.D.
former Deputy National Security Advisor
Jason Providakes, Ph.D.
former CEO of MITRE
John Philips
founder of PredictIt
Wendy McMahon
former President and CEO, CBS News
Investors
We're hiring
Help build how the world's decision-makers see what comes next.
Name an event. See what moves it.
Start with a topic and get a probability, the causes behind it and the scenarios that follow, every claim sourced.
Contact
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